- [Episode #284] – Faster Than Forecast

When we first created the Energy Transition Show in 2015, solar generated about 250 terawatt hours worldwide. That was roughly as much electricity as California used the same year. A decade later, as the energy transition moved ahead, solar generates more than ten times as much, matching the European Union’s total electricity demand.

Though sometimes progress can seem like it isn’t happening nearly fast enough. Renewables only edged past coal in 2025, by supplying around a third of global electricity. But everything built over those ten years matters now more than ever. As we reviewed on Episode #272, soon after the US and Israel attacked Iran, the Strait of Hormuz closed, and the aftermath has created a persistent disruption in global energy flows that sent oil, gas and diesel prices surging. Ember’s Global Electricity Review, which we covered with Nic Fulghum on Episode #274, found that the growth in solar generation in 2025 alone could displace gas-fired electricity equal to all the LNG exported through the strait that year. Without it, this crisis would be far harder to weather against the reality of constrained fossil fuel supplies.

For decades, forecasts for where the energy transition would be by now kept coming in low. Researchers from the LUT University team featured on Episode #95 went back through the International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook reports and found they consistently underestimated solar. The IEA’s most ambitious scenario from 2022 had annual solar installations peaking at 657 gigawatts in 2040. By SolarPower Europe’s count, the world installed more than that in 2025.

This is the first in a new documentary series, built from our past episodes, featuring interviews Chris Nelder recorded while the future was still unfolding, often years ahead of the headlines. We start with Episode #200, where Canary Media’s Jeff St. John co-hosted. They remembered how bold a name like “Energy Transition Show” seemed back in 2015. Were the forecasters just being too cautious, or were their methods off?

This year, some are projecting solar installations will fall for the first time in more than twenty years. What should forecasts like that tell us about the road ahead?

Featured in this episode, in the order they first appear:

* Jeff St. John, Director of News and Special Projects at Canary Media, in conversation with Chris on Episode #200 (2023)

* Ryan Wiser, Senior Scientist at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, on Episode #30 (2016)

* Kingsmill Bond, Energy Strategist at Carbon Tracker, on Episode #108 (2019)

* Matthew Ives, economist at Oxford’s Institute for New Economic Thinking, on Episode #159 (2021)

* Doyne Farmer, Director of Complexity Economics at Oxford’s Institute for New Economic Thinking, on Episode #239 (2024)

* Gregory Nemet, Professor at the University of Wisconsin–Madison, on Episode #178 (2022)

* Christophe McGlade, Head of the Energy Supply Unit at the International Energy Agency, on Episode #215 (2024)

* Tim Gould, co-head of the World Energy Outlook at the International Energy Agency, on Episode #215 (2024) and Episode #148 (2021)

* Nic Fulghum, Senior Analyst at Ember, on Episode #254 (2025)